{"id":42584,"date":"2019-05-03T09:43:24","date_gmt":"2019-05-03T07:43:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/?p=42584"},"modified":"2019-05-03T09:43:31","modified_gmt":"2019-05-03T07:43:31","slug":"why-software-projects-take-longer-than-you-think-a-statistical-model","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/2019\/05\/03\/why-software-projects-take-longer-than-you-think-a-statistical-model\/","title":{"rendered":"Why software projects take longer than you think \u2013 a statistical model"},"content":{"rendered":"<!-- google_ad_section_start -->\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"660\" height=\"440\" data-attachment-id=\"42585\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/2019\/05\/03\/why-software-projects-take-longer-than-you-think-a-statistical-model\/scatter\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/scatter.png?fit=900%2C600&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"900,600\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"scatter\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/scatter.png?fit=660%2C440&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/scatter.png?resize=660%2C440&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-42585\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/scatter.png?w=900&amp;ssl=1 900w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/scatter.png?resize=500%2C333&amp;ssl=1 500w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/scatter.png?resize=768%2C512&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 660px) 100vw, 660px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/erikbern.com\/2019\/04\/15\/why-software-projects-take-longer-than-you-think-a-statistical-model.html\">Why software projects take longer than you think \u2013 a statistical model<\/a>&#8221; is an interesting take on the problem of bad estimations in software projects.  I&#8217;m not that great with math, but even then the article is very interesting.  And there is a lot that I agree with.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-twitter aligncenter wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">I have two methods for estimating project size:<br>(a) break things down into subprojects, estimate them, add it up<br>(b) gut feeling estimate based on how nervous i feel about unexpected risks<br>So far (b) is vastly more accurate for any project more than a few weeks<\/p>&mdash; Erik Bernhardsson (@bernhardsson) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/bernhardsson\/status\/1103871565685391360?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 8, 2019<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Here&#8217;s a quote for those of you who couldn&#8217;t make it through:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p><strong>Why software tasks always take longer than you think<br><\/strong><\/p><p>Assuming this dataset is representative of software development (questionable!), we can infer some more numbers. We have the parameters for the t-distribution, so we can compute the mean time it takes to complete a task, without knowing the \u03c3 for that task is.<\/p><p><br>While the median blowup factor imputed from this fit is 1x (as before), the 99% percentile blowup factor is 32x, but if you go to 99.99% percentile, it\u2019s a whopping 55\u00a0<em>million<\/em>! One (hand wavy) interpretation is that some tasks end up being essentially impossible to do. In fact, these extreme edge cases have such an outsize impact on the\u00a0<em>mean<\/em>, that the mean blowup factor of\u00a0<em>any task<\/em>\u00a0ends up being\u00a0<em>infinite<\/em>. This is pretty bad news for people trying to hit deadlines!<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<!-- google_ad_section_end -->\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<!-- google_ad_section_start -->\n<p>&#8220;Why software projects take longer than you think \u2013 a statistical model&#8221; is an interesting take on the problem of bad estimations in software projects. I&#8217;m not that great with math, but even then the article is very interesting. And there is a lot that I agree with. Here&#8217;s a quote for those of you &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/2019\/05\/03\/why-software-projects-take-longer-than-you-think-a-statistical-model\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Why software projects take longer than you think \u2013 a statistical model<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<!-- google_ad_section_end -->\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"Why software projects take longer than you think \u2013 a statistical model #WebDev #PM #management #analysis #SoftwareEngineering ","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[1,18,62,1334],"tags":[250,580,3178,1673,1041,1330],"keyring_services":[],"class_list":["post-42584","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general","category-programming","category-technology","category-web-work","tag-analysis","tag-management","tag-project-management","tag-software-engineering","tag-statistics","tag-web-development"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 4.9.8 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"&quot;Why software projects take longer than you think \u2013 a statistical model&quot; is an interesting take on the problem of bad estimations in software projects. 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Here's a quote for those of you","og:url":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/2019\/05\/03\/why-software-projects-take-longer-than-you-think-a-statistical-model\/","og:image":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/leonid-sailing-beer.jpg","og:image:secure_url":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/leonid-sailing-beer.jpg","og:image:width":1024,"og:image:height":1024,"article:published_time":"2019-05-03T07:43:24+00:00","article:modified_time":"2019-05-03T07:43:31+00:00","article:publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/MamchenkovBlog","twitter:card":"summary_large_image","twitter:site":"@mamchenkov","twitter:title":"Why software projects take longer than you think \u2013 a statistical model - Leonid Mamchenkov","twitter:description":"&quot;Why software projects take longer than you think \u2013 a statistical model&quot; is an interesting take on the problem of bad estimations in software projects. I'm not that great with math, but even then the article is very interesting. And there is a lot that I agree with. Here's a quote for those of you","twitter:creator":"@mamchenkov","twitter:image":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/leonid-sailing-beer.jpg"},"aioseo_meta_data":{"post_id":"42584","title":null,"description":null,"keywords":null,"keyphrases":null,"primary_term":null,"canonical_url":null,"og_title":null,"og_description":null,"og_object_type":"default","og_image_type":"default","og_image_url":null,"og_image_width":null,"og_image_height":null,"og_image_custom_url":null,"og_image_custom_fields":null,"og_video":null,"og_custom_url":null,"og_article_section":null,"og_article_tags":null,"twitter_use_og":false,"twitter_card":"default","twitter_image_type":"default","twitter_image_url":null,"twitter_image_custom_url":null,"twitter_image_custom_fields":null,"twitter_title":null,"twitter_description":null,"schema":{"blockGraphs":[],"customGraphs":[],"default":{"data":{"Article":[],"Course":[],"Dataset":[],"FAQPage":[],"Movie":[],"Person":[],"Product":[],"ProductReview":[],"Car":[],"Recipe":[],"Service":[],"SoftwareApplication":[],"WebPage":[]},"graphName":"BlogPosting","isEnabled":true},"graphs":[]},"schema_type":"default","schema_type_options":null,"pillar_content":false,"robots_default":true,"robots_noindex":false,"robots_noarchive":false,"robots_nosnippet":false,"robots_nofollow":false,"robots_noimageindex":false,"robots_noodp":false,"robots_notranslate":false,"robots_max_snippet":null,"robots_max_videopreview":null,"robots_max_imagepreview":"large","priority":null,"frequency":null,"local_seo":null,"breadcrumb_settings":null,"limit_modified_date":false,"ai":null,"created":"2023-07-19 20:08:45","updated":"2026-01-15 14:11:45","seo_analyzer_scan_date":null},"aioseo_breadcrumb":"<div class=\"aioseo-breadcrumbs\"><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\" title=\"Home\">Home<\/a>\n\t\t<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb-separator\">&raquo;<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/category\/technology\/\" title=\"Technology\">Technology<\/a>\n\t\t<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb-separator\">&raquo;<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/category\/technology\/programming\/\" title=\"Programming\">Programming<\/a>\n\t\t<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb-separator\">&raquo;<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\t\t\tWhy software projects take longer than you think \u2013 a statistical model\n\t\t<\/span><\/div>","aioseo_breadcrumb_json":[{"label":"Home","link":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress"},{"label":"Technology","link":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/category\/technology\/"},{"label":"Programming","link":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/category\/technology\/programming\/"},{"label":"Why software projects take longer than you think \u2013 a statistical model","link":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/2019\/05\/03\/why-software-projects-take-longer-than-you-think-a-statistical-model\/"}],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":9049,"url":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/2005\/06\/06\/the-trac-project\/","url_meta":{"origin":42584,"position":0},"title":"The Trac Project","author":"Leonid Mamchenkov","date":"June 6, 2005","format":false,"excerpt":"Here is a quote from The Trac Project website: Trac is an enhanced wiki and issue tracking system for software development projects. Trac uses a minimalistic approach to web-based software project management. Our mission; to help developers write great software while staying out of the way. Trac should impose as\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;All&quot;","block_context":{"text":"All","link":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/category\/general\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":29025,"url":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/2018\/11\/25\/sr-ht-sir-hat-open-source-software-suite-for-managing-your-software-development-projects\/","url_meta":{"origin":42584,"position":1},"title":"sr.ht (&#8220;sir hat&#8221;) &#8211; open source software suite for managing your software development projects","author":"Leonid Mamchenkov","date":"November 25, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"sr.ht - pronounced \"sir hat\" - is a new competitor in the world of GitHub, BitBucket, and GitLab.\u00a0 Much like all of these, you can either self-hosted it or use a managed service.\u00a0 It might not yet be as fancy, polished, and cool (I think they need a better name\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;All&quot;","block_context":{"text":"All","link":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/category\/general\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/sr.ht_-500x408.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":28311,"url":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/2018\/01\/09\/products-over-projects\/","url_meta":{"origin":42584,"position":2},"title":"Products Over Projects","author":"Leonid Mamchenkov","date":"January 9, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Martin Fowler has an excellent article on the \"Products\u00a0 Over Projects\" subject.\u00a0 It depicts the differences of both, with advantages and disadvantages, especially in areas like funding, team management, and iterations. It's a great read for anybody involved in software development, product and project management. \u00a0","rel":"","context":"In &quot;All&quot;","block_context":{"text":"All","link":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/category\/general\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":47591,"url":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/2020\/03\/12\/tips-for-implementing-a-software-release-process\/","url_meta":{"origin":42584,"position":3},"title":"Tips for Implementing a Software Release Process","author":"Leonid Mamchenkov","date":"March 12, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"I came across this nice article outlining some of the tips for implementing the software release process. Software Development process is not complete and mature without a well-defined release process for the software applications. Every software application needs to be delivered or deployed at some point in time and for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;All&quot;","block_context":{"text":"All","link":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/category\/general\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7354,"url":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/2004\/02\/29\/gramps-genealogical-research-and-analysis-management-programming-system\/","url_meta":{"origin":42584,"position":4},"title":"Gramps &#8211; Genealogical Research and Analysis Management Programming System","author":"Leonid Mamchenkov","date":"February 29, 2004","format":false,"excerpt":"Today is last day of the longest winter in the last four years, in case anyone forgot. :) Accidentally, I came over an excellent piece of software called gramps. Which is, as title abbreviates, \"Genealogical Research and Analysis Management Programming System\". Something like this has been on my I-really-need-it list\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;All&quot;","block_context":{"text":"All","link":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/category\/general\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":29302,"url":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/2019\/01\/25\/our-software-dependency-problem\/","url_meta":{"origin":42584,"position":5},"title":"Our Software Dependency Problem","author":"Leonid Mamchenkov","date":"January 25, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"\"Our Software Dependency Problem\" is a great article going in-depth into the subject of the dependency management during software engineering. Dependency managers have scaled this open-source code reuse model down: now, developers can share code at the granularity of individual functions of tens of lines. This is a major technical\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;All&quot;","block_context":{"text":"All","link":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/category\/general\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42584","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=42584"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42584\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=42584"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=42584"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=42584"},{"taxonomy":"keyring_services","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/keyring_services?post=42584"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}