{"id":28308,"date":"2018-01-09T11:13:04","date_gmt":"2018-01-09T09:13:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/?p=28308"},"modified":"2018-01-09T11:13:04","modified_gmt":"2018-01-09T09:13:04","slug":"mental-models","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/2018\/01\/09\/mental-models\/","title":{"rendered":"Mental models"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Here’s a nice collection of mental models<\/a>:<\/p>\n

These are some mental models I find useful. They\u2019re rooted in decades of experience of thousands of experts \u2013 a modern equivalent of folk wisdom. Mental models are useful to quickly and correctly reason about seemingly intractable problems. They require quite a bit of intuition to properly internalize, but once you\u2019ve internalized them they\u2019re relatively easy to apply. They\u2019re also easy to forget in the moment \u2013 use this post as a checklist when thinking about complex problems.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Of those that I read through so far, I found the Planning fallacy<\/a> the most useful:<\/p>\n

Planning fallacy<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 the observation that humans are overly optimistic when predicting success of their undertakings. Empirically, the average case turns out to be worse than the worst case human estimate.
\nCorollary:<\/strong>\u00a0Be\u00a0really<\/em>\u00a0pessimistic when estimating. Assume the average case will be slightly worse than the hypothetical worst case.
\nCorollary:<\/strong>\u00a0When estimating time, upgrade the units and double the estimate (e.g. convert \u201cone week\u201d to \u201ctwo months\u201d).<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

 <\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\n

Here’s a nice collection of mental models: These are some mental models I find useful. They\u2019re rooted in decades of experience of thousands of experts \u2013 a modern equivalent of folk wisdom. Mental models are useful to quickly and correctly reason about seemingly intractable problems. They require quite a bit of intuition to properly internalize, … Continue reading Mental models<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"Mental models #management #productivity","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[580,1079],"keyring_services":[],"class_list":["post-28308","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general","tag-management","tag-productivity"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t