{"id":18450,"date":"2013-07-03T21:41:35","date_gmt":"2013-07-03T19:41:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/?p=18450"},"modified":"2013-07-03T21:41:35","modified_gmt":"2013-07-03T19:41:35","slug":"why-are-software-development-task-estimations-regularly-off-by-a-factor-of-2-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/2013\/07\/03\/why-are-software-development-task-estimations-regularly-off-by-a-factor-of-2-3\/","title":{"rendered":"Why are software development task estimations regularly off by a factor of 2-3?"},"content":{"rendered":"<!-- google_ad_section_start -->\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.quora.com\/Engineering-Management\/Why-are-software-development-task-estimations-regularly-off-by-a-factor-of-2-3\">Why are software development task estimations regularly off by a factor of 2-3?<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Excellent Quora thread with many solid examples and explanations.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Developers are also the only group where they are asked to do something which has never been done before, and tell someone else how long it will take before they even know what actually needs to be done.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<!-- google_ad_section_end -->\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<!-- google_ad_section_start -->\n<p>Why are software development task estimations regularly off by a factor of 2-3? Excellent Quora thread with many solid examples and explanations. Developers are also the only group where they are asked to do something which has never been done before, and tell someone else how long it will take before they even know what &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/2013\/07\/03\/why-are-software-development-task-estimations-regularly-off-by-a-factor-of-2-3\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Why are software development task estimations regularly off by a factor of 2-3?<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<!-- google_ad_section_end -->\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"link","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[1,18,62],"tags":[3178],"keyring_services":[],"class_list":["post-18450","post","type-post","status-publish","format-link","hentry","category-general","category-programming","category-technology","tag-project-management","post_format-post-format-link"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 4.9.8 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Why are software development task estimations regularly off by a factor of 2-3? 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Developers are also the only group where they are asked to do something which has never been done before, and tell someone else how long it will take before they even know what","og:url":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/2013\/07\/03\/why-are-software-development-task-estimations-regularly-off-by-a-factor-of-2-3\/","og:image":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/leonid-sailing-beer.jpg","og:image:secure_url":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/leonid-sailing-beer.jpg","og:image:width":1024,"og:image:height":1024,"article:published_time":"2013-07-03T19:41:35+00:00","article:modified_time":"2013-07-03T19:41:35+00:00","article:publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/MamchenkovBlog","twitter:card":"summary_large_image","twitter:site":"@mamchenkov","twitter:title":"Why are software development task estimations regularly off by a factor of 2-3? - Leonid Mamchenkov","twitter:description":"Why are software development task estimations regularly off by a factor of 2-3? Excellent Quora thread with many solid examples and explanations. Developers are also the only group where they are asked to do something which has never been done before, and tell someone else how long it will take before they even know what","twitter:creator":"@mamchenkov","twitter:image":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/leonid-sailing-beer.jpg"},"aioseo_meta_data":{"post_id":"18450","title":null,"description":null,"keywords":null,"keyphrases":null,"primary_term":null,"canonical_url":null,"og_title":null,"og_description":null,"og_object_type":"default","og_image_type":"default","og_image_url":null,"og_image_width":null,"og_image_height":null,"og_image_custom_url":null,"og_image_custom_fields":null,"og_video":null,"og_custom_url":null,"og_article_section":null,"og_article_tags":null,"twitter_use_og":false,"twitter_card":"default","twitter_image_type":"default","twitter_image_url":null,"twitter_image_custom_url":null,"twitter_image_custom_fields":null,"twitter_title":null,"twitter_description":null,"schema":{"blockGraphs":[],"customGraphs":[],"default":{"data":{"Article":[],"Course":[],"Dataset":[],"FAQPage":[],"Movie":[],"Person":[],"Product":[],"ProductReview":[],"Car":[],"Recipe":[],"Service":[],"SoftwareApplication":[],"WebPage":[]},"graphName":"","isEnabled":true},"graphs":[]},"schema_type":"default","schema_type_options":null,"pillar_content":false,"robots_default":true,"robots_noindex":false,"robots_noarchive":false,"robots_nosnippet":false,"robots_nofollow":false,"robots_noimageindex":false,"robots_noodp":false,"robots_notranslate":false,"robots_max_snippet":null,"robots_max_videopreview":null,"robots_max_imagepreview":"large","priority":null,"frequency":null,"local_seo":null,"breadcrumb_settings":null,"limit_modified_date":false,"ai":null,"created":"2023-07-20 01:18:53","updated":"2026-01-15 09:32:37","seo_analyzer_scan_date":null},"aioseo_breadcrumb":"<div class=\"aioseo-breadcrumbs\"><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\" title=\"Home\">Home<\/a>\n\t\t<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb-separator\">&raquo;<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/category\/technology\/\" title=\"Technology\">Technology<\/a>\n\t\t<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb-separator\">&raquo;<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/category\/technology\/programming\/\" title=\"Programming\">Programming<\/a>\n\t\t<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb-separator\">&raquo;<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\t\t\tWhy are software development task estimations regularly off by a factor of 2-3?\n\t\t<\/span><\/div>","aioseo_breadcrumb_json":[{"label":"Home","link":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress"},{"label":"Technology","link":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/category\/technology\/"},{"label":"Programming","link":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/category\/technology\/programming\/"},{"label":"Why are software development task estimations regularly off by a factor of 2-3?","link":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/2013\/07\/03\/why-are-software-development-task-estimations-regularly-off-by-a-factor-of-2-3\/"}],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":42584,"url":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/2019\/05\/03\/why-software-projects-take-longer-than-you-think-a-statistical-model\/","url_meta":{"origin":18450,"position":0},"title":"Why software projects take longer than you think \u2013 a statistical model","author":"Leonid Mamchenkov","date":"May 3, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"\"Why software projects take longer than you think \u2013 a statistical model\" is an interesting take on the problem of bad estimations in software projects. I'm not that great with math, but even then the article is very interesting. And there is a lot that I agree with. https:\/\/twitter.com\/fulhack\/status\/1103871565685391360 Here's\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;All&quot;","block_context":{"text":"All","link":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/category\/general\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/scatter.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/scatter.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/scatter.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/scatter.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":27634,"url":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/2017\/05\/28\/swag-estimations\/","url_meta":{"origin":18450,"position":1},"title":"SWAG estimations","author":"Leonid Mamchenkov","date":"May 28, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Well, I didn't know that I was a practitioner of SWAG estimations ... Scientific wild-ass guess (SWAG) is American slang meaning a rough estimate made by an expert in the field, based on experience and intuition. It is similar to the slang word guesstimate, a portmanteau of guess and estimate.","rel":"","context":"In &quot;All&quot;","block_context":{"text":"All","link":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/category\/general\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Donkey (PIC BY MICK GALLAGHER \/ CATERS NEWS)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/donkey-500x334.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":18348,"url":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/2013\/06\/11\/coding-fast-and-slow-developers-and-the-psychology-of-overconfidence\/","url_meta":{"origin":18450,"position":2},"title":"Coding, Fast and Slow: Developers and the Psychology of Overconfidence","author":"Leonid Mamchenkov","date":"June 11, 2013","format":"link","excerpt":"Coding, Fast and Slow: Developers and the Psychology of Overconfidence This is an excellent take on why (we the) developers suck at time estimations. \u00a0 Basically, it boils down to two reasons: unknown details of the project and overconfendence. First off, there are, I believe, really two reasons why we\u2019re\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;All&quot;","block_context":{"text":"All","link":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/category\/general\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":29178,"url":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/2019\/01\/05\/guesstimate-a-spreadsheet-for-things-that-arent-certain\/","url_meta":{"origin":18450,"position":3},"title":"Guesstimate &#8211; a spreadsheet for things that aren\u2019t certain","author":"Leonid Mamchenkov","date":"January 5, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Guesstimate is a spreadsheet for non-precise calculations (estimations and approximations). Watch a two-minute video on the homepage to get a better idea of how it works. While playing around with it and reading more on similar tools, I also found these two Wikipedia pages interesting: Monte Carlo methodFermi problem Very\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;All&quot;","block_context":{"text":"All","link":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/category\/general\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/guesstimate.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/guesstimate.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/guesstimate.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/guesstimate.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/guesstimate.png?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":9422,"url":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/2005\/09\/07\/car-status-update\/","url_meta":{"origin":18450,"position":4},"title":"Car status update","author":"Leonid Mamchenkov","date":"September 7, 2005","format":false,"excerpt":"I left my car in the garage yesterday for repairs. The mechanic wasn't there to give me the estimations, so I had to call back. I didn't catch him on the phone yesterday though. Today he told me that everything is going fine. The car should be ready by Friday.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;All&quot;","block_context":{"text":"All","link":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/category\/general\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":26341,"url":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/2016\/08\/12\/the-twelve-factor-app\/","url_meta":{"origin":18450,"position":5},"title":"The Twelve-Factor App","author":"Leonid Mamchenkov","date":"August 12, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"I first heard about the twelve-factor app a couple of years ago, in Berlin, during the International PHP conference. \u00a0It was the basis for David Zulke (of Heroku fame) talk on the best practices for the modern day PHP applications. The twelve-factor app is a methodology for building software-as-a-service apps\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;All&quot;","block_context":{"text":"All","link":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/category\/general\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18450","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18450"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18450\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18450"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18450"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18450"},{"taxonomy":"keyring_services","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/keyring_services?post=18450"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}