{"id":18348,"date":"2013-06-11T02:21:18","date_gmt":"2013-06-11T00:21:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/?p=18348"},"modified":"2013-06-11T02:21:18","modified_gmt":"2013-06-11T00:21:18","slug":"coding-fast-and-slow-developers-and-the-psychology-of-overconfidence","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/2013\/06\/11\/coding-fast-and-slow-developers-and-the-psychology-of-overconfidence\/","title":{"rendered":"Coding, Fast and Slow: Developers and the Psychology of Overconfidence"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Coding, Fast and Slow: Developers and the Psychology of Overconfidence<\/a><\/p>\n

This is an excellent take on why (we the) developers suck at time estimations. \u00a0 Basically, it boils down to two reasons: unknown details of the project and overconfendence.<\/p>\n

First off, there are, I believe, really two reasons why we\u2019re so bad at making estimates. The first is the sort of irreducible one: writing software involves figuring out something in such incredibly precise detail that you can tell a computer how to do it. And the problem is that, hidden in the parts you don\u2019t fully understand when you start, there are often these problems that will explode and just utterly screw\u00a0you.<\/p>\n

And this is genuinely irreducible. If you do \u201cfully understand\u201d something, you\u2019ve got a library or existing piece of software that does that thing, and you\u2019re not writing anything. Otherwise, there is uncertainty, and it will often blow up. And those blow ups can take anywhere from one day to one year to beyond the heat death of the universe to\u00a0resolve.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Read the whole thing, it’s worth it.<\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\n

Coding, Fast and Slow: Developers and the Psychology of Overconfidence This is an excellent take on why (we the) developers suck at time estimations. \u00a0 Basically, it boils down to two reasons: unknown details of the project and overconfendence. First off, there are, I believe, really two reasons why we\u2019re so bad at making estimates. … Continue reading Coding, Fast and Slow: Developers and the Psychology of Overconfidence<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"link","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[1,18,62],"tags":[580,3178,1146,239],"keyring_services":[],"class_list":["post-18348","post","type-post","status-publish","format-link","hentry","category-general","category-programming","category-technology","tag-management","tag-project-management","tag-psychology","tag-time","post_format-post-format-link"],"aioseo_notices":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":24707,"url":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/2015\/09\/08\/on-full-stack-developers\/","url_meta":{"origin":18348,"position":0},"title":"On full stack developers","author":"Leonid Mamchenkov","date":"September 8, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"I came across an excellent blog post on full stack developers - \"The full stack developer is a myth\". \u00a0I do much agree on what is being said there. \u00a0Firstly, the stack itself. Secondly, on the problem: A full stack developer is a myth not because none exist, but because\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "All"","block_context":{"text":"All","link":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/category\/general\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Non-exhaustive list of a technical stack layers and components","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/reasonably-full-stack-500x417.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":27454,"url":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/2017\/03\/26\/phpqa-all-in-one-analyzer-cli-tool\/","url_meta":{"origin":18348,"position":1},"title":"PHPQA all-in-one Analyzer CLI tool","author":"Leonid Mamchenkov","date":"March 26, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"PHPQA all-in-one Analyzer CLI tool. \u00a0This project bundles together all the usual PHP quality control tools, and then some. \u00a0It simplifies the installation and configuration of the tools and helps developers to push up the quality control bar on their projects. The tools currently included are: PHP Parallel Lint PHP\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "All"","block_context":{"text":"All","link":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/category\/general\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/phplint-500x390.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":15748,"url":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/2011\/10\/20\/software-developers-worst-enemy\/","url_meta":{"origin":18348,"position":2},"title":"Software developer’s worst enemy","author":"Leonid Mamchenkov","date":"October 20, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Coding Horror has an insightful article on the software developer's worst enemy. [...] the real problem isn't the code. The code, like a newborn babe, is blameless and innocent the minute it is written into the world. Code isn't our enemy. You want to see the real enemy? Go look\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "All"","block_context":{"text":"All","link":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/category\/general\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15884,"url":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/2011\/11\/11\/on-open-source-developers\/","url_meta":{"origin":18348,"position":3},"title":"On Open Source developers","author":"Leonid Mamchenkov","date":"November 11, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"It appears that not all Open Source Software developers are pathetic losers coding from their grandmother's basement. \u00a0Here is a paragraph from Dan William's blog post announcing the new release of NetworkManager application: There\u2019s no better way to celebrate the release of NetworkManager 0.9.2 than a sip of ice-cold cocktail.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "All"","block_context":{"text":"All","link":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/category\/general\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/beach-500x228.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":26070,"url":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/2016\/04\/26\/best-practices-for-designing-a-pragmatic-restful-api\/","url_meta":{"origin":18348,"position":4},"title":"Best Practices for Designing a Pragmatic RESTful API","author":"Leonid Mamchenkov","date":"April 26, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"An API is a user interface for developers. Put the effort in to ensure it's not just functional but pleasant to use. Vinay Sahni has a rather lengthy, detailed, and well-rounded post on how to design a good RESTful API. \u00a0It covers pretty much everything from URL structures and parameters,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "All"","block_context":{"text":"All","link":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/category\/general\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":215,"url":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/2003\/05\/09\/vim-configurations\/","url_meta":{"origin":18348,"position":5},"title":"Vim configurations","author":"Leonid Mamchenkov","date":"May 9, 2003","format":false,"excerpt":"Good part of the day has been dedicated to Vim again. Since the amount of coding (perl) that I do has greatly increased recently, I felt like reconfiguring my editor a bit. Final configuration impressed a good part of our developers in the office. That fact drove me to the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "All"","block_context":{"text":"All","link":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/category\/general\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18348","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18348"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18348\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18348"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18348"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18348"},{"taxonomy":"keyring_services","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/keyring_services?post=18348"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}