{"id":15472,"date":"2011-09-06T11:39:36","date_gmt":"2011-09-06T09:39:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/?p=15472"},"modified":"2011-09-06T11:39:36","modified_gmt":"2011-09-06T09:39:36","slug":"bayes-theorem-history","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/2011\/09\/06\/bayes-theorem-history\/","title":{"rendered":"Bayes theorem history"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

A fascinating read on the Bayes theorem history<\/a>:<\/p>\n

The German codes, produced by Enigma machines with customizable wheel positions that allowed the codes to be changed rapidly, were considered unbreakable, so nobody was working on them. This attracted\u00a0Alan Turing\u00a0to the problem, because he liked solitude. He built a machine that could test different code possibilities, but it was slow. The machine might need four days to test all 336 wheel positions on a particular Enigma code. Until more machines could be built, Turing had to find a way for reducing the burden on the machine.<\/p>\n

He used a Bayesian system to guess the letters in an Enigma message, and add more clues as they arrived with new data. With this method he could reduce the number of wheel settings to be tested by his machine from 336 to as few as 18. But soon, Turing realized that he couldn’t compare the probabilities of his hunches without a standard unit of measurement. So, he invented the ‘ban’, defined as “about the smallest change in weight of evidence that is directly perceptible to human intuition.” This unit turned out to be very similar to the bit, the measure of information discovered using Bayes’ Theorem while working for Bell Telephone.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

If the whole thing is too much for you, at least read the “Bayes at War” section.<\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\n

A fascinating read on the Bayes theorem history: The German codes, produced by Enigma machines with customizable wheel positions that allowed the codes to be changed rapidly, were considered unbreakable, so nobody was working on them. This attracted\u00a0Alan Turing\u00a0to the problem, because he liked solitude. He built a machine that could test different code possibilities, … Continue reading Bayes theorem history<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[1,62],"tags":[2899,2898,2888,286,1101,2407],"keyring_services":[],"class_list":["post-15472","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general","category-technology","tag-alan-turing","tag-bayes-theorem","tag-cryptography","tag-history","tag-math","tag-world-war-ii"],"aioseo_notices":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":18922,"url":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/2013\/12\/09\/bayesdb-a-bayesian-database-table-for-querying-the-probable-implications-of-data\/","url_meta":{"origin":15472,"position":0},"title":"BayesDB – a Bayesian database table for querying the probable implications of data","author":"Leonid Mamchenkov","date":"December 9, 2013","format":"link","excerpt":"BayesDB - a Bayesian database table for querying the probable implications of data BayesDB, a Bayesian database, lets users query the probable implications of their data as easily as a SQL database lets them query the data itself. 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