{"id":11165,"date":"2008-04-22T12:29:38","date_gmt":"2008-04-22T09:29:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/?p=11165"},"modified":"2008-04-22T12:29:38","modified_gmt":"2008-04-22T09:29:38","slug":"it-is-not-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/2008\/04\/22\/it-is-not-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it\/","title":{"rendered":"It is NOT the end of the world, as we know it"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Web Worker Daily<\/a> links to the article titled “AT&T: Internet to hit full capacity by 2010<\/a>“. Here is a summary:<\/p>\n

Speaking at a Westminster eForum on Web 2.0 this week in London, Jim Cicconi, vice president of legislative affairs for AT&T, warned that the current systems that constitute the Internet will not be able to cope with the increasing amounts of video and user-generated content being uploaded.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Well, thank you for pointing out the obvious, Mr. Jim.\u00a0 The current systems that constitute the Internet will not be able to cope indeed.\u00a0 That’s why they will be upgraded, updated, redesigned, and multiplied to cope with the increasing amounts of video and user-generated content.\u00a0 That’s how it was before and that’s how it will be in the future.<\/p>\n

There is this nice concept that I’ve learned about back in the college days.\u00a0 I don’t remember how it’s called, but it is very related to three terms: “supply”, “demand”, and “equilibrium”.\u00a0 I’m sure that current economics aren’t as simple, and that there are many better concepts to explain things, but I liked the simplicity of it.\u00a0 I am also a big believer in the ultimate power – natural balance.\u00a0 Things can be pulled a little bit left and right, and that’s possible, but in the long term, everything will balance out.<\/p>\n

Looking through that prism on the problem of ever increasing Internet traffic, that seems to be like a lot of demand.\u00a0 If big companies, such as AT&T won’t be able to supply enough, it doesn’t mean that the Earth will stop revolving and wait for them to catch up.\u00a0 This has been proved before and will be proved again, if needed.\u00a0 If it will come to the worst, ISPs can be decentralized by self-managing network units (individual or small networks) that interconnect with each other.\u00a0 That’s actually what happens in areas which are not covered by major Internet Service Providers.\u00a0 People install their own wireless networks, connect to each other, and between those who can connect them further.\u00a0 If there will be too much demand for solutions like this, they can be rather easily automated with hardware units and simple software packages.<\/p>\n

As to the claims of how fast the traffic will rise, I don’t quite agree.\u00a0 It will continue to rise at dramatic rates, but not as dramatic as:<\/p>\n

“In three years’ time, 20 typical households will generate more traffic than the entire Internet today.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

That’s just insane.<\/p>\n

Cicconi added that more demand for high-definition video will put an increasing strain on the Internet infrastructure. “Eight hours of video is loaded onto YouTube every minute. Everything will become HD very soon, and HD is 7 to 10 times more bandwidth-hungry than typical video today. Video will be 80 percent of all traffic by 2010, up from 30 percent today,” he said.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

HD is a promising technology, and it has its niche, but saying that everything is will go HD very soon, well… It reminds me of all those claims about radio disappearing when TV came along, and TV disappearing when Internet appeared.\u00a0 HD will be pretty popular, but there are many areas where it is not applicable.\u00a0 For example, it will take a long time before mobile phones will learn how to create HD content.<\/p>\n

And not to forget the money issue, people are prepared to pay today than they used to before. And they are paying more.\u00a0 Think about it.\u00a0 Ten years ago not a lot of people had a dial-up account.\u00a0 Which was a really crappy way to connect to the Internet.\u00a0 And it was priced at about $20 USD a month.\u00a0 Today I pay about $60 USD a month to my ISP<\/a>, which brings me Internet, television, and telephony through a single cable.\u00a0 And guess what – I am prepared to pay more.\u00a0 And guess what – I am by far not alone.\u00a0 I know more people today who pay $60 USD for their Internet connectivity than I knew before paying for their dial-up connection.<\/p>\n

The Internet is changing.\u00a0 If before it was mostly good for checking email and reading an occasional web site, today it is a powerful tool that solve a whole range of communication and entertainment problems.\u00a0 Make it better and we’ll pay more.<\/p>\n

Oh, and you’ll get paid from the other side too – web services, and the rest of the crowd who make a lot of money on the Internet.\u00a0 10 years ago a service such as Flickr<\/a> would be possible.\u00a0 Or it would have been rather useless.\u00a0 Today I now more people paying for a Pro account to Flickr than I knew before paying for their dial-up connection.\u00a0 How’s that?\u00a0 I’m sure Flickr is ready to pay more for better connectivity.<\/p>\n

So, Mr. Jim, stop whining.\u00a0 It’s not the end of the world.\u00a0 It doesn’t even look like it. Quite the opposite.\u00a0 It’s the golden time for the people who work in technology.\u00a0 Let’s get back to work and make the world a better place.<\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\n

Web Worker Daily links to the article titled “AT&T: Internet to hit full capacity by 2010“. Here is a summary: Speaking at a Westminster eForum on Web 2.0 this week in London, Jim Cicconi, vice president of legislative affairs for AT&T, warned that the current systems that constitute the Internet will not be able to … Continue reading It is NOT the end of the world, as we know it<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[1,62,1334],"tags":[764,747,281,124],"keyring_services":[],"class_list":["post-11165","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general","category-technology","category-web-work","tag-internet","tag-isp","tag-networks","tag-web"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t