{"id":11009,"date":"2008-01-05T17:09:41","date_gmt":"2008-01-05T14:09:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/2008\/01\/05\/what-did-you-change-your-mind-about-in-2007\/"},"modified":"2008-01-05T17:09:41","modified_gmt":"2008-01-05T14:09:41","slug":"what-did-you-change-your-mind-about-in-2007","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/2008\/01\/05\/what-did-you-change-your-mind-about-in-2007\/","title":{"rendered":"What Did You Change Your Mind About in 2007?"},"content":{"rendered":"<!-- google_ad_section_start -->\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/slashdot.org\">Slashdot<\/a> runs an excellent discussion on the topic of &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/ask.slashdot.org\/article.pl?sid=08\/01\/01\/1313203&amp;from=rss\">What Did You Change Your Mind About in 2007?<\/a>&#8220;.\u00c2\u00a0 If you want to learn more about what people on the Web had changed their minds in 2007, try <a href=\"http:\/\/www.google.com\/search?q=%22What+Did+You+Change+Your+Mind+About+in+2007%3F%22\">this Google search<\/a> &#8211; plenty more there.<\/p>\n<p>What did I change my mind about in 2007?\u00c2\u00a0 Short answer: Google.\u00c2\u00a0 Continue reading for the long version.<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p>Here is my simplified view of how IT industry evolves. Please, remember that it is very subjective and simplified before you start throwing stones my way.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>IT industry evolves constantly, but in stages.\u00c2\u00a0 Or periods. \u00c2\u00a0 Each stage has a pretty clear beginning and end.<\/li>\n<li>Research and development happens all over the IT industry all the time, but there is, at any stage, one area which is more important than others.<\/li>\n<li>There are many cool companies and individuals working in all areas of IT industry all the time, but at any stage of evolution, there is one company which leads the way.\u00c2\u00a0 Such company, of course, leads the way via being the best in the most important IT area of the stage.<\/li>\n<li>When IT industry evolves to the next stage, the area changes, and so does the company.\u00c2\u00a0 No company had led the IT industry for two stages at a time.\u00c2\u00a0 Neither did any company came back to the leading position after it left it.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Let&#8217;s see it in examples, shall we?\u00c2\u00a0 I promise, I won&#8217;t go too deep or too far into the history.<\/p>\n<p>Let&#8217;s start with <strong>hardware<\/strong>.\u00c2\u00a0 There was a time when the power of computing was realized and a sudden need for lots and lots of hardware appeared. Many companies contributed a lot, and there was plenty of competition, but <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ibm.com\" title=\"International Business Machines\">IBM<\/a> was at the top.\u00c2\u00a0 They were the leader of that stage.\u00c2\u00a0 You can still hear &#8220;IBM compatible&#8221; once in a while. It used to mean a lot.<\/p>\n<p>Then came the era of <strong>software<\/strong>.\u00c2\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.microsoft.com\">Microsoft<\/a> took the leadership from IBM and rained for a long time. \u00c2\u00a0 At certain times they were so far ahead that nobody even came close.\u00c2\u00a0 They are still pretty important with 80-something percent of the desktop market, most widely used web browser, and tight relationships with many large companies.\u00c2\u00a0 However, they aren&#8217;t leading the IT industry anymore.\u00c2\u00a0 They are not defining the future.<\/p>\n<p>Then there was a brief era of <strong>Open Source<\/strong>.\u00c2\u00a0 It was so brief that not many even noticed it.\u00c2\u00a0 However it was still important.\u00c2\u00a0 And it had its own leader &#8211; <a href=\"http:\/\/www.redhat.com\">Red Hat<\/a>.\u00c2\u00a0 Red Hat hired people from all the most important software projects on the Web &#8211; Linux kernel, Apache, Mozilla, Gnome, Python, OpenOffice.org, and many more.\u00c2\u00a0 For many people &#8220;Linux&#8221; and &#8220;Red Hat&#8221; were synonyms.\u00c2\u00a0 And that didn&#8217;t come easy.\u00c2\u00a0 But now, that stage is gone.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Web<\/strong> was the next stage.\u00c2\u00a0 And how do you think ruled it?\u00c2\u00a0 You guessed it right &#8211; <a href=\"http:\/\/www.google.co.uk\/\">Google<\/a>. \u00c2\u00a0 Google lead the IT industry in cutting the rough edges of the Web, and making it the useful tool of any computer user.\u00c2\u00a0 It still does.<\/p>\n<p>Now.\u00c2\u00a0 That&#8217;s how I saw the evolution of the IT industry until very recently.\u00c2\u00a0 Until the end of 2007.\u00c2\u00a0 Then, I changed my mind about it.\u00c2\u00a0 Why?\u00c2\u00a0 How?\u00c2\u00a0 Here are the answers.<\/p>\n<p>In 2007 it became clear that the next stage of the evolution of IT industry is starting up &#8211; <strong>mobile computing<\/strong>.\u00c2\u00a0 Yes, we had laptops and mobile phones for years now, but it wasn&#8217;t the same.\u00c2\u00a0 We entering a new stage, one that we haven&#8217;t seen before.\u00c2\u00a0 Extremely powerful devices with 3D graphics, vast amounts of memory, multimedia functionality,\u00c2\u00a0 and GPS will become a norm shortly.\u00c2\u00a0 That will once again change how we communicate, research, and have fun.<\/p>\n<p>Now, according to my own view of how things work, it was the time for a new leader to appear.\u00c2\u00a0 A bright company that would lead us into mobile computing.\u00c2\u00a0 One that would change how we understand things.\u00c2\u00a0 But &#8230;. I could see no such company on the horizon.<\/p>\n<p>In the meantime, mobile phone manufacturers are making more and more phones.\u00c2\u00a0 Phones are getting more brains and power, but they are still the same old phones that we are all used to.\u00c2\u00a0 Was I so mistaken in my view of the world?\u00c2\u00a0 Maybe.<\/p>\n<p>Then comes <a href=\"http:\/\/www.apple.com\/iphone\/\">Apple iPhone<\/a>.\u00c2\u00a0 That&#8217;s a blast in the mobile world.\u00c2\u00a0 And Apple is back.\u00c2\u00a0 Will they lead the new stage? No, I don&#8217;t think so.\u00c2\u00a0 They are too old for this and they have lost their chance long time ago.\u00c2\u00a0 Plus, the iPhone isn&#8217;t changing any perspectives.\u00c2\u00a0 It&#8217;s not very innovative or anything.\u00c2\u00a0 All of its functionality was available in form or another for a few years already.\u00c2\u00a0 It just doesn&#8217;t qualify for the leadership.<\/p>\n<p>Also, we hear plenty of rumors about a mobile phone from Google &#8211; gPhone.\u00c2\u00a0 People were saying that it will even utilize the same headset as the iPhone did.\u00c2\u00a0 Those news were a disappointment.\u00c2\u00a0 The way I saw them, on one hand, Google realized that mobile computing is coming and wants to participate in it.\u00c2\u00a0 But on the other, with just another phone &#8211; it won&#8217;t lead the stage.\u00c2\u00a0 So, it seemed, after all, my picture of the world was somewhat correct. All we had to do is wait for the\u00c2\u00a0 new leader to emerge.<\/p>\n<p>And than comes out <a href=\"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/2007\/11\/13\/android-open-source-mobile-platform\/\" title=\"Android - open source mobile platform\">Android<\/a>.\u00c2\u00a0 Boom!<\/p>\n<p>Android &#8211; the open source platform from top to bottom.\u00c2\u00a0 Tools and documentation for software developers.\u00c2\u00a0 $10,000,000 USD allocated for prizes to developers of the most innovative applications.\u00c2\u00a0 Open Handset Alliance with about 30 members from all parts of the mobile computing world.\u00c2\u00a0 Powerful and slick hardware prototypes. Linux-based operating system.\u00c2\u00a0 Java-based application stack. Wow!<\/p>\n<p>Is Android one of the major happenings?\u00c2\u00a0 Yes.\u00c2\u00a0 Does it have enough to change our perception of the mobile computing?\u00c2\u00a0 Yes.\u00c2\u00a0 Will the company that came up with this whole Android thing lead us the next stage of IT industry evolution? Yes, of course.<\/p>\n<p>There is only problem.\u00c2\u00a0 Google came up with Android.\u00c2\u00a0 And Google has already been the leader of one stage.\u00c2\u00a0 And there is no question about Android being from another stage, the stage of mobile computing.\u00c2\u00a0 So. What is happening here?<\/p>\n<p>That&#8217;s where I had to change my mind.\u00c2\u00a0 The same company can indeed lead more than one stage of the evolution.\u00c2\u00a0 It&#8217;s far from easy. It&#8217;s in fact so hard that it&#8217;s almost impossible.\u00c2\u00a0 Most failed at it before.\u00c2\u00a0 But Google can.\u00c2\u00a0 It proved to be young, smart, and flexible even now that it has grown a few thousand employees larger, and a few years more corporate.\u00c2\u00a0 And that is truly amazing.<\/p>\n<p>Up there, where I said in my short answer that I changed my mind about Google, I wasn&#8217;t completely true.\u00c2\u00a0 Although I did have to change my mind about Google, it wasn&#8217;t the biggest change.\u00c2\u00a0 The major change was in my view and understanding of how IT industry evolves.\u00c2\u00a0 And that is on the scale of learning that the Earth is round after being afraid for centuries of falling off the edge of it.\u00c2\u00a0 You know, the solar system vs. three elephants on top of three wales holding the world.\u00c2\u00a0 That sort of change&#8230;<\/p>\n<!-- google_ad_section_end -->\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<!-- google_ad_section_start -->\n<p>Slashdot runs an excellent discussion on the topic of &#8220;What Did You Change Your Mind About in 2007?&#8220;.\u00c2\u00a0 If you want to learn more about what people on the Web had changed their minds in 2007, try this Google search &#8211; plenty more there. What did I change my mind about in 2007?\u00c2\u00a0 Short answer: &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/2008\/01\/05\/what-did-you-change-your-mind-about-in-2007\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">What Did You Change Your Mind About in 2007?<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<!-- google_ad_section_end -->\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[1,6,2,62],"tags":[2068,2400,286,1076,2076,2912,1297,2293,2416],"keyring_services":[],"class_list":["post-11009","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general","category-linux","category-personal","category-technology","tag-google","tag-google-android","tag-history","tag-ibm","tag-microsoft","tag-open-source","tag-predictions","tag-red-hat","tag-thoughts"],"aioseo_notices":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":19483,"url":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/2014\/01\/17\/andrew-nacin-how-wordpress-evolves-without-breaking-everything\/","url_meta":{"origin":11009,"position":0},"title":"Andrew Nacin: How WordPress Evolves Without Breaking Everything","author":"Leonid Mamchenkov","date":"January 17, 2014","format":"link","excerpt":"Andrew Nacin: How WordPress Evolves Without Breaking Everything Backward compatibility! 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A few years ago, many people complained that mobile sites and mobile apps are too limited.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;All&quot;","block_context":{"text":"All","link":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/category\/general\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12266,"url":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/2010\/03\/18\/day-in-brief\/","url_meta":{"origin":11009,"position":2},"title":"Day in brief","author":"Leonid Mamchenkov","date":"March 18, 2010","format":false,"excerpt":"Tried KDE 4 in Fedora Linux 12. Still as unusable as ever. # Mitter looks like a really simple (but nice) Twitter app for Gnome. # Mitter turned out to be too simplified. No way to close it or to switch between different streams. Trying out pino. 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These scripts have access to many of the APIs available to full-fledged Android applications, but with a greatly\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;All&quot;","block_context":{"text":"All","link":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/category\/general\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":11677,"url":"https:\/\/mamchenkov.net\/wordpress\/2009\/07\/22\/google-reader-too-user-friendly\/","url_meta":{"origin":11009,"position":5},"title":"Google Reader : too user friendly?","author":"Leonid Mamchenkov","date":"July 22, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"I think of Google Reader as a very user friendly application. 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